An Analysis of Interim COVID-19 Vaccination Plans

*Note: This post is regularly updated with the most current information by Forrest Behne.

Each U.S. state is developing programs to plan and operationalize a vaccination response to COVID-19 within their jurisdiction based on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) COVID-19 Vaccination Program Interim Playbook for Jurisdiction Operations, released October 29, 2020. States were tasked with developing a vaccine plan that includes three phases, ordered from highest to lowest priority, and ensuring equitable access for CDC defined “critical populations,” including (1) critical infrastructure workforce, (2) people at increased risk for severe COVID-19 illness, (3) people at increased risk of acquiring or transmitting COVID-19, and (4) people with limited access to routine vaccination services. 

CPP analyzed each of these plans to identify in which phase incarcerated people are targeted for COVID-19 vaccination. Thirty-four (34) States/Territories have, so far, included incarcerated populations as part of their Phase 1 vaccine distribution; of these 34 States/Territories, three (3) have specifically prioritized incarcerated populations that are medically vulnerable to COVID-19. These states are Arizona, South Dakota, and Utah. Medically vulnerable populations include incarcerated people that are over the age of 65 or have two or more chronic conditions. Four (4) states include incarcerated populations as part of their Phase 2 vaccine distribution. Tennessee and Missouri designate incarcerated populations for vaccination in phase 3 while correctional staff are targeted for Phase 1. We have categorized Montana as Phase 1 but must note that they organized their prioritization categories as tiers, making their plan more difficult to discern. Thirteen (13) states did not explicitly identify how they would prioritize incarcerated populations in the distribution of vaccines.

The image below shows how states have categorized incarcerated people into various phases for vaccine distribution. This analysis and figure are being updated as revisions to the states’ final plans occur. Vaccination plans may not be reflective of actual distribution. See our COVID-19 Vaccine Doses page for further details.

COVID-19 Case Watch

This graph shows confirmed positive cases of COVID-19 per 1,000 individuals in the prison and general populations in each state as of March 11, 2021. The left side (orange) refers to the prison population and the right side (blue) refers to the general population.

The rate of COVID in the general population is 87.33 per 1,000 individuals. In the prison population, the rate is 277.35 per 1,000 individuals. On average, the rate of COVID infections in prison populations remains over 3 times the rate of COVID infections in the general population. 

In 47 of the 50 US states, the burden of COVID among those imprisoned still exceeds that in the general population. In the last week, the largest increase in prison population case rates in the last week occurred in Vermont. While 218 of Vermont’s 1,369 incarcerated people had received a positive COVID test by last week, 236 had received a positive test by today. The highest case rate in the state prison systems remains in Michigan with 25,459 of its incarcerated population (688.45 per 1,000) having tested positive for COVID. Over half of the state’s prison population has tested positive for COVID in Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and South Dakota. 

Importantly, states have varying testing strategies within prisons and for their general population, indicating that these rates likely reflect a falsely low disease incidence with some states’ rates being more accurate than others.

COVID-19 Case Watch March 4, 2021

This graph shows confirmed positive cases of COVID-19 per 1,000 individuals in the prison and general populations in each state as of March 4, 2021. The left side (orange) refers to the prison population and the right side (blue) refers to the general population.

The rate of COVID in the general population is 86.81 per 1,000 individuals. In the prison population, the rate is 275.95 per 1,000 individuals. On average, the rate of COVID infections in prison populations remains over 3 times the rate of COVID infections in the general population. Hawaii and Michigan continue to have prison infection rates that are over 10 times that of the state general population. 

In 47 of the 50 US states, the burden of COVID among those imprisoned still exceeds that in the general population. In the last week, the largest increases in prison population case rates in the last week occurred in Montana and Vermont. While 90 of Vermont’s 1,369 incarcerated people had received a positive COVID test by last week, 218 had received a positive test by today. The highest case rate in the state prison systems remains in Michigan with 25,359 of its incarcerated population (685.75 per 1,000) having tested positive for COVID. Over half of the state’s prison population has tested positive for COVID in Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and South Dakota. 

Importantly, states have varying testing strategies within prisons and for their general population, indicating that these rates likely reflect a falsely low disease incidence with some states’ rates being more accurate than others.

COVID-19 Case Watch February 25, 2021

This graph shows confirmed positive cases of COVID-19 per 1,000 individuals in the prison and general populations in each state as of February 25, 2021. The left side (orange) refers to the prison population and the right side (blue) refers to the general population.

The rate of COVID in the general population is 85.49 per 1,000 individuals. In the prison population, the rate is 273.68 per 1,000 individuals. On average, the rate of COVID infections in prison populations is over 3 times the rate of COVID infections in the general population. Hawaii and Michigan continue to have prison infection rates that are over 10 times that of the state general population. 

Despite the continued surge of COVID cases in the general population in the last few months, in 47 of the 50 US states, the rate of COVID infections among those imprisoned still exceeds the rate of COVID infections among the general population. In the last week, case rates have continued to increase drastically in prisons in multiple states. The largest increases in prison population case rates in the last week occurred in Vermont and Wyoming. The highest case rate in the state prison systems remains in Michigan with 25,198 of its incarcerated population (681.40 per 1,000) having tested positive for COVID. Over half of the state’s prison population has tested positive for COVID in Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and South Dakota. 

Importantly, states have varying testing strategies within prisons and for their general population, indicating that these rates likely reflect a falsely low disease incidence with some states’ rates being more accurate than others.

COVID-19 Case Watch February 18, 2021

This graph shows confirmed positive cases of COVID-19 per 1,000 individuals in the prison and general populations in each state as of February 18, 2021. The left side (orange) refers to the prison population and the right side (blue) refers to the general population.

The rate of COVID in the general population is 84.04 per 1,000 individuals. In the prison population, the rate is 273.59 per 1,000 individuals. On average, the rate of COVID infections in prison populations is over 3 times the rate of COVID infections in the general population. Hawaii and Michigan continue to have prison infection rates that are over 10 times that of the state general population. 

Despite the continued surge of COVID cases in the general population in the last few months, in 46 of the 50 US states, the rate of COVID infections among those imprisoned still exceeds the rate of COVID infections among the general population. Wyoming’s general population recently surpassed its prison population in the total COVID infection rate. In the last week, case rates have continued to increase drastically in prisons in multiple states. The largest increases in prison population case rates in the last week occurred in New York and Vermont. The highest case rate in the state prison systems remains in Michigan with 25,055 of its incarcerated population (677.53 per 1,000) having tested positive for COVID. Over half of the state’s prison population has tested positive for COVID in Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and South Dakota. 

Importantly, states have varying testing strategies within prisons and for their general population, indicating that these rates likely reflect a falsely low disease incidence with some states’ rates being more accurate than others.

COVID-19 Case Watch February 11, 2021

This graph shows confirmed positive cases of COVID-19 per 1,000 individuals in the prison and general populations in each state as of February 11, 2021. The left side (orange) refers to the prison population and the right side (blue) refers to the general population.

The rate of COVID in the general population is 82.50 per 1,000 individuals. In the prison population, the rate is 269.81 per 1,000 individuals. On average, the rate of COVID infections in prison populations is over 3 times the rate of COVID infections in the general population. Hawaii and Michigan continue to have prison infection rates that are over 10 times that of the state general population. 

Despite the continued surge of COVID cases in the general population in the last few months, in 47 of the 50 US states, the rate of COVID infections among those imprisoned still exceeds the rate of COVID infections among the general population. The three states with a higher COVID rate in the general population continue to be in the Deep South: Alabama, Georgia, and Mississippi. In the last week, case rates have continued to increase drastically in prisons in multiple states. The largest increases in prison population case rates in the last week occurred in Wyoming and New York. The highest case rate in the state prison systems remains in Michigan with 24,681 of its incarcerated population (667.41 per 1,000) having tested positive for COVID. Over half of the state’s prison population has tested positive for COVID in Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and South Dakota. 

Importantly, states have varying testing strategies within prisons and for their general population, indicating that these rates likely reflect a falsely low disease incidence with some states’ rates being more accurate than others.

COVID-19 Case Watch February 4, 2021

This graph shows confirmed positive cases of COVID-19 per 1,000 individuals in the prison and general populations in each state as of February 4, 2021. The left side (orange) refers to the prison population and the right side (blue) refers to the general population.

The rate of COVID in the general population is 80.34 per 1,000 individuals. In the prison population, the rate is 266.60 per 1,000 individuals. On average, the rate of COVID infections in prison populations is over 3 times the rate of COVID infections in the general population. Hawaii and Michigan continue to have prison infection rates that are over 10 times that of the state general population. 

Despite the continued surge of COVID cases in the general population in the last few months, in 47 of the 50 US states, the rate of COVID infections among those imprisoned still exceeds the rate of COVID infections among the general population. The three states with a higher COVID rate in the general population continue to be in the Deep South: Alabama, Georgia, and Mississippi. In the last week, case rates have continued to increase drastically in prisons in multiple states. The largest increase in prison population case rates in the last week occurred in Arizona. Last week, 9,704 individuals in its prison population of 41,386 had tested positive and by February 4th, 11,385 had. Case rates in prisons have also increased drastically in Wyoming. The highest case rate in the state prison systems remains in Michigan with 24,638 of its incarcerated population (651.54 per 1,000) having tested positive for COVID. Over half of the state’s prison population has tested positive for COVID in Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and South Dakota. 

Importantly, states have varying testing strategies within prisons and for their general population, indicating that these rates likely reflect a falsely low disease incidence with some states’ rates being more accurate than others.

COVID-19 Case Watch January 27-28, 2021

This graph shows confirmed positive cases of COVID-19 per 1,000 individuals in the prison populations in each state as of January 28, 2021 and general populations in each state as of January 27, 2021. The left side (orange) refers to the prison population and the right side (blue) refers to the general population.

The rate of COVID in the general population is 76.61 per 1,000 individuals. In the prison population, the rate is 261.27 per 1,000 individuals. On average, the rate of COVID infections in prison populations is over 3.4 times the rate of COVID infections in the general population. Hawaii and Michigan continue to have prison infection rates that are over 10 times that of the state general population. 

Despite the continued surge of COVID cases in the general population in the last two months, in 47 of the 50 US states, the rate of COVID infections among those imprisoned still exceeds the rate of COVID infections among the general population. The three states with a higher COVID rate in the general population continue to be in the Deep South: Alabama, Georgia, and Mississippi. In the last week, case rates have continued to increase drastically in prisons in multiple states. The largest increase in prison population case rates in the last week occurred in Texas. Last week, 25,806 individuals in its prison population of 151,126 had tested positive and by January 28th, 32,675 had. Case rates in prisons have also increased drastically in Arizona and West Virginia. The highest case rate in the state prison systems remains in Michigan with 24,049 of its incarcerated population (651.54 per 1,000) having tested positive for COVID. Over half of the state’s prison population has tested positive for COVID in Alaska, Arkansas, Kansas, Michigan, and South Dakota. 

Importantly, states have varying testing strategies within prisons and for their general population, indicating that these rates likely reflect a falsely low disease incidence with some states’ rates being more accurate than others.

COVID-19 Case Watch January 20-21, 2021

This graph shows confirmed positive cases of COVID-19 per 1,000 individuals in the prison populations in each state as of January 21, 2021 and general populations in each state as of January 20, 2021. The left side (orange) refers to the prison population and the right side (blue) refers to the general population.

The rate of COVID in the general population is 69.09 per 1,000 individuals. In the prison population, the rate is 249.69 per 1,000 individuals. On average, the rate of COVID infections in prison populations is almost 3.6 times the rate of COVID infections in the general population. Hawaii and Michigan continue to have prison infection rates that are over 10 times that of the state general population. 

Despite the continued surge of COVID cases in the general population, in 47 of the 50 US states, the rate of COVID infections among those imprisoned still exceeds the rate of COVID infections among the general population. The three states with a higher COVID rate in the general population continue to be in the Deep South: Alabama, Georgia, and Mississippi. In the last week, case rates have continued to increase drastically in prisons in multiple states. The largest increase in prison population case rates in the last week occurred in Nevada. Last week, 2,612 individuals in its prison population of 12,127 had tested positive and by January 21st, 4,491 had. Case rates in prisons have also increased drastically in Kentucky, New York, and Pennsylvania. The highest case rate in the state prison systems remains in Michigan with 23,739 of its incarcerated population (641.94 per 1,000) having tested positive for COVID. Over half of the state’s prison population has tested positive for COVID in Alaska, Arkansas, Kansas, Michigan, and South Dakota. 

Importantly, states have varying testing strategies within prisons and for their general population, indicating that these rates likely reflect a falsely low disease incidence with some states’ rates being more accurate than others.

COVID-19 Case Watch January 13, 2021

This graph shows confirmed positive cases of COVID-19 per 1,000 individuals in the prison and general populations in each state as of January 13, 2021. The left side (orange) refers to the prison population and the right side (blue) refers to the general population.

The rate of COVID in the general population is 69.01 per 1,000 individuals. In the prison population, the rate is 240.05 per 1,000 individuals. On average, the rate of COVID infections in prison populations is almost 3.5 times the rate of COVID infections in the general population. Hawaii and Michigan continue to have prison infection rates that are over 10 times that of the state general population. 

Despite the continued surge of COVID cases in the general population in the last two months, in 47 of the 50 US states, the rate of COVID infections among those imprisoned still exceeds the rate of COVID infections among the general population. The three states with a higher COVID rate in the general population are in the Deep South: Alabama, Georgia, and Mississippi. In the last month, case rates have continued to increase drastically in prisons in multiple states. The largest increase in prison population case rates in the last month occurred in New Hampshire. In mid-December, only 13 individuals in its prison population of 2,513 had tested positive and by mid-January, 407 had. Case rates in prisons have also increased drastically in Pennsylvania and Washington. The highest case rate in the state prison systems is in Michigan with 23,309 of its incarcerated population (630.31 per 1,000) having tested positive for COVID. Over half of the state’s prison population has tested positive for COVID in Alaska, Arkansas, Kansas, Michigan, and South Dakota. 

Importantly, states have varying testing strategies within prisons and for their general population, indicating that these rates likely reflect a falsely low disease incidence with some states’ rates being more accurate than others.